Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $480 held · ends Nov 8

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$480.36

Combined PnL

-$1.31

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 83.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$412.91

Total Shares498

Combined PnL-$6.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$67.45

Total Shares365

Combined PnL+$5.47

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83¢	$305.99	$300.53	-$5.46	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 83¢	$82.11	$81.74	-$0.38	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$59	$64.21	+$5.21	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 84¢	$31.58	$30.64	-$0.94	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$10	$1.85	+$0.15	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.28	$1.39	+$0.11	57% 22242-16601 (38843)

Flaznorp

Invested

$305.99

Value

$300.53

PnL

-$5.46

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$82.11

Value

$81.74

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59

Value

$64.21

PnL

+$5.21

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$31.58

Value

$30.64

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.11

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.