Any member-elect blocked from being sworn in?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 4, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Mon, Jan 4, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$66.24

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 91.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,147

Combined PnL+$97.61

Yes6 traders

Total Value$96.97

Total Shares1,141

Combined PnL-$31.38

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 86.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$101.59	— 4-15 (19)
KL klli27	Noavg 89¢	$202.54	$198.57	-$3.97	27% 498-1335 (1833)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$70.21	$54.25	-$15.96	— 3-6 (9)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$35.86	$21.77	-$14.09	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$11.09	$13.47	+$2.38	—
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$5.46	$3.57	-$1.89	— 1-9 (10)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$3	$2.13	-$0.88	24% 484-1522 (2006)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.73	$1.79	-$0.94	— 1-10 (11)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$1,768.54

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$101.59

Record

—

4-15 (19)

klli27

Invested

$202.54

Value

$198.57

PnL

-$3.97

Record

27%

498-1335 (1833)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.21

Value

$54.25

PnL

-$15.96

Record

—

3-6 (9)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.86

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$14.09

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.09

Value

$13.47

PnL

+$2.38

Record

—

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.46

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$1.89

Record

—

1-9 (10)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.88

Record

24%

484-1522 (2006)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$0.94

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.