Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$12.48
54.6¢ → 59¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $1.4K | $884.57 | -$26.39 | 36% 15325-27398 (42723) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 39¢ | $324.65 | $490.85 | +$217.76 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $615.66 | $393.72 | -$244.15 | |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $39.48 | $49.56 | +$12.6 | 41% 1359-1916 (3275) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $39.9 | $39.51 | -$0.12 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
 KimchiCapital<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $36.6 | $35.4 | +$0 | 76% 525-162 (687) |
Invested
$1,380.67
Value
$884.57
PnL
-$26.39
Record
36%
15325-27398 (42723)
Both legs:
probability<$100Invested
$39.48
Value
$49.56
PnL
+$12.6
Record
41%
1359-1916 (3275)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$39.9
Value
$39.51
PnL
-$0.12
Record
21%
300-1144 (1444)
KimchiCapital<$100Invested
$36.6
Value
$35.4
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
525-162 (687)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.