Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31, 2027

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Dec 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$139.79

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 90.5¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,713

Combined PnL+$152.42

Yes5 traders

Total Value$145.8

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$12.64

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME melonmanm	Noavg 80.4¢	$522.64	$585	+$62.36	2% 2-109 (111)
balthazar	Noavg 74.2¢	$249.46	$299.42	+$49.96	50% 4491-4437 (8928)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 73.2¢	$279.21	$295.67	+$16.47	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
VI Vitaaalya	Noavg 71¢	$256.85	$280.49	+$23.64	— 0-12 (12)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$53.23	$44.71	-$8.52	41% 3005-4412 (7417)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$48	$44	-$4	0% 0-41 (41)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$43.64	$43.64	+$0	— 8-9 (17)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$11.27	$10.78	-$0.49	— 1-9 (10)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$2.3	$2.68	+$0.38	23% 80-263 (343)

melonmanm

Invested

$522.64

Value

$585

PnL

+$62.36

Record

2-109 (111)

balthazar

Invested

$249.46

Value

$299.42

PnL

+$49.96

Record

50%

4491-4437 (8928)

cigarettes

Invested

$279.21

Value

$295.67

PnL

+$16.47

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

Vitaaalya

Invested

$256.85

Value

$280.49

PnL

+$23.64

Record

—

0-12 (12)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.23

Value

$44.71

PnL

-$8.52

Record

41%

3005-4412 (7417)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48

Value

$44

PnL

-$4

Record

0-41 (41)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.64

Value

$43.64

PnL

+$0

Record

—

8-9 (17)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.27

Value

$10.78

PnL

-$0.49

Record

—

1-9 (10)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.38

Record

23%

80-263 (343)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.8%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.