Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.5T?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$3.6K
$569.41
33.7¢ → 49.3¢
+46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
586h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 24.2¢ | $701.51 | $1.2K | +$567.53 | 60% 1203-815 (2018) |
VI VitaaalyaCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $140.63 | $918.26 | +$251.99 | — 0-12 (12) |
 Tenebrus7 | Yesavg 70.1¢ | $714.81 | $517.63 | -$197.18 | 0% 0-36 (36) |
ME melonmanmCTR | Noavg 43.8¢ | $216.23 | $243.2 | +$26.97 | 2% 2-95 (97) |
 G.Hchen | Yesavg 57.7¢ | $230.81 | $203 | -$27.8 | 0% 0-84 (84) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 67.1¢ | $307.28 | $198.16 | -$56.46 | — 3-6 (9) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Noavg 46.2¢ | $177.53 | $190.84 | +$13.32 | 46% 178-209 (387) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 56.3¢ | $73.2 | $95.3 | -$8.96 | 52% 1020-950 (1970) |
balthazarCTRInvested
$701.51
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$567.53
Record
60%
1203-815 (2018)
Invested
$140.63
Value
$918.26
PnL
+$251.99
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Tenebrus7Invested
$714.81
Value
$517.63
PnL
-$197.18
Record
0%
0-36 (36)
Invested
$216.23
Value
$243.2
PnL
+$26.97
Record
2%
2-95 (97)
G.HchenInvested
$230.81
Value
$203
PnL
-$27.8
Record
0%
0-84 (84)
HaradwaithInvested
$307.28
Value
$198.16
PnL
-$56.46
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$177.53
Value
$190.84
PnL
+$13.32
Record
46%
178-209 (387)
Invested
$73.2
Value
$95.3
PnL
-$8.96
Record
52%
1020-950 (1970)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.