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3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $202 held · ends Dec 1

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$201.81

Combined PnL

$7.63

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 83.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$186.95

Total Shares212

Combined PnL+$8.29

Yes3 traders

Total Value$14.86

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$0.66

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 78.2¢	$134.81	$141.27	+$6.46	40% 2998-4409 (7407)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 79¢	$24.66	$25.68	+$1.02	— 6-8 (14)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 78¢	$19.2	$20	+$0.8	17% 10-48 (58)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$7.35	$7.12	-$0.23	— 0-12 (12)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$4.37	$4.14	-$0.23	— 1-9 (10)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$3.8	$3.6	-$0.2	— 1-10 (11)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$134.81

Value

$141.27

PnL

+$6.46

Record

40%

2998-4409 (7407)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$24.66

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$1.02

Record

—

6-8 (14)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.8

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$0.23

Record

—

0-12 (12)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$0.23

Record

—

1-9 (10)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.