Another candidate is the 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.6K
$337.47
52.8¢ → 77¢
+46% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
554h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Yesavg 68.8¢ | $732.71 | $772.11 | -$3.57 | 50% 1097-1093 (2190) |
BU buoys | Yesavg 65.3¢ | $380.44 | $421.8 | +$46.71 | 45% 785-949 (1734) |
SN Snoorrason | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $4.83 | $202.86 | +$160.21 | 39% 1519-2417 (3936) |
CR crckr | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $19.88 | $150.78 | +$130.56 | 26% 879-2469 (3348) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $31.23 | $21.99 | -$9.42 | 59% 1054-736 (1790) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $0.5 | $14.49 | +$12.99 | 15% 5011-29434 (34445) |
smellyEllieInvested
$732.71
Value
$772.11
PnL
-$3.57
Record
50%
1097-1093 (2190)
Invested
$380.44
Value
$421.8
PnL
+$46.71
Record
45%
785-949 (1734)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$202.86
PnL
+$160.21
Record
39%
1519-2417 (3936)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$150.78
PnL
+$130.56
Record
26%
879-2469 (3348)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$31.23
Value
$21.99
PnL
-$9.42
Record
59%
1054-736 (1790)
2B9S<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
$14.49
PnL
+$12.99
Record
15%
5011-29434 (34445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.