Will Alice Huang be federally charged by March 31, 2027?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$198.61
76.8¢ → 66¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$80 | 8% 4-44 (48) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 78¢ | $517.58 | $477.77 | -$39.81 | 45% 10-12 (22) |
PL plustiCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $251.55 | $317.17 | +$65.62 | 29% 24-58 (82) |
 Lolakis<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $87.26 | $89.79 | +$2.53 | 18% 7-32 (39) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 63.9¢ | $153.56 | $74.61 | +$32.69 | 40% 3331-4971 (8302) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.9¢ | $52.42 | $54.54 | +$2.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $17.97 | $20.07 | +$30.39 | |
 HoshinoAI | Noavg 70¢ | $648.89 | $53.62 | -$137.72 | 36% 19-34 (53) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $69.42 | $24.79 | -$10.05 | 23% 514-1702 (2216) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.86 | $3.67 | +$0.82 | 48% 1234-1318 (2552) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$1,160
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$80
Record
8%
4-44 (48)
Invested
$517.58
Value
$477.77
PnL
-$39.81
Record
45%
10-12 (22)
Invested
$251.55
Value
$317.17
PnL
+$65.62
Record
29%
24-58 (82)
Lolakis<$100Invested
$87.26
Value
$89.79
PnL
+$2.53
Record
18%
7-32 (39)
Invested
$153.56
Value
$74.61
PnL
+$32.69
Record
40%
3331-4971 (8302)
Both legs:
HoshinoAIInvested
$648.89
Value
$53.62
PnL
-$137.72
Record
36%
19-34 (53)
Invested
$69.42
Value
$24.79
PnL
-$10.05
Record
23%
514-1702 (2216)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$2.86
Value
$3.67
PnL
+$0.82
Record
48%
1234-1318 (2552)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.