Will Alice Huang be arrested by March 31, 2027?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
-$10.3
93¢ → 91.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 92.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.5K | -$8.73 | 69% 1400-643 (2043) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyARB<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $174.52 | $201.43 | +$26.91 | 48% 1229-1315 (2544) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 90¢ | $114.52 | $116.43 | +$1.91 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 6¢ | $60 | $85 | +$25 | |
SU SulkingCrypto | Noavg 94¢ | $202 | $200 | -$2 | 9% 3-30 (33) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $6.5 | $14.88 | +$8.38 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $12.53 | $12.77 | +$0.24 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $27.39 | $7.7 | -$6.68 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $5 | $3.5 | -$1.5 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $9.39 | $1.06 | -$0 | 3% 1-29 (30) |
CarInvested
$1,897.43
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$8.73
Record
69%
1400-643 (2043)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyARB<$100Invested
$174.52
Value
$201.43
PnL
+$26.91
Record
48%
1229-1315 (2544)
Both legs:
Invested
$202
Value
$200
PnL
-$2
Record
9%
3-30 (33)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
$14.88
PnL
+$8.38
Record
—
Invested
$12.53
Value
$12.77
PnL
+$0.24
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$27.39
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$6.68
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$9.39
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0
Record
3%
1-29 (30)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.