Will Alice Huang be arrested by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $234 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$233.59
-$15.03
92.8¢ → 97¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 94.7¢ | $149.57 | $118.81 | -$0.37 | — 1-10 (11) |
 Lolakis<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $70.06 | $62.77 | -$6.46 | 0% 0-31 (31) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $44.12 | $41.46 | -$2.66 | — 0-12 (12) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $8 | $6 | -$2 | 47% 1610-1838 (3448) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $8.1 | $4.55 | -$3.55 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
Invested
$149.57
Value
$118.81
PnL
-$0.37
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Lolakis<$100Invested
$70.06
Value
$62.77
PnL
-$6.46
Record
0%
0-31 (31)
Invested
$44.12
Value
$41.46
PnL
-$2.66
Record
—
0-12 (12)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
$6
PnL
-$2
Record
47%
1610-1838 (3448)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$3.55
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.