Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.4K
$18.2
89.2¢ → 91.1¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $541.67 | $571.71 | +$30.04 | 62% 413-249 (662) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 89.8¢ | $492.54 | $491.15 | -$0.03 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
SN Snoorrason | Noavg 87¢ | $217.5 | $235 | +$17.5 | 39% 1181-1881 (3062) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 92.5¢ | $148.02 | $84.6 | -$28.42 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $11.65 | $10.76 | -$0.89 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
clazzy1Invested
$541.67
Value
$571.71
PnL
+$30.04
Record
62%
413-249 (662)
IstarothInvested
$492.54
Value
$491.15
PnL
-$0.03
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$217.5
Value
$235
PnL
+$17.5
Record
39%
1181-1881 (3062)
Invested
$148.02
Value
$84.6
PnL
-$28.42
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
2B9S<$100Invested
$11.65
Value
$10.76
PnL
-$0.89
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.