AHL: Manitoba Moose vs. Chicago Wolves

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Manitoba Moose (38%) · Manitoba Moose at 57¢ · $706 held · ends Nov 15

Manitoba Moose57¢Chicago Wolves43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Manitoba Moose

Consensus Traders

Manitoba Moose 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$706.14

Combined PnL

-$1.91

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralManitoba Moose at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Manitoba Moose

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Manitoba Moose57%

Chicago Wolves43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manitoba Moose3 traders

Total Value$388.29

Total Shares680

Combined PnL-$4.09

Chicago Wolves5 traders

Total Value$235.85

Total Shares552

Combined PnL+$2.19

Manitoba Moose — 38%Chicago Wolves — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Manitoba Moose. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Manitoba Moose) and the top 1000 (6 on Chicago Wolves) disagree here.

sharpChicago Wolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrManitoba Moose 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedManitoba Moose 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chicago Wolves 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Manitoba Mooseavg 57.4¢	$207.43	$205.82	-$1.61	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
BA Bayupati	Manitoba Mooseavg 58¢	$107.01	$106.09	-$0.92	20% 40-164 (204)
ST stepanka1234CTR<$100	Chicago Wolvesavg 42.4¢	$98.45	$99.75	+$1.3	52% 12-11 (23)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Chicago Wolvesavg 42¢	$97.51	$98.67	+$1.16	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Chicago Wolvesavg 50¢	$146	$82	-$0	64% 145-81 (226)
└ Manitoba Moose leg	Manitoba Mooseavg 50¢	$41	$46.74	+$5.74
└ Chicago Wolves leg	Chicago Wolvesavg 50¢	$41	$35.26	-$5.74
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Manitoba Mooseavg 58.2¢	$77.94	$76.38	-$1.56	48% 469-508 (977)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Chicago Wolvesavg 43¢	$24.21	$23.93	-$0.28	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Chicago Wolvesavg 42¢	$7.04	$7.12	+$0.08	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Chicago Wolvesavg 43¢	$6.45	$6.38	-$0.07	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

VeryLucky888

Manitoba Moose

Invested

$207.43

Value

$205.82

PnL

-$1.61

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

Bayupati

Manitoba Moose

Invested

$107.01

Value

$106.09

PnL

-$0.92

Record

20%

40-164 (204)

stepanka1234CTR<$100

Chicago Wolves

Invested

$98.45

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$1.3

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Chicago Wolves

Invested

$97.51

Value

$98.67

PnL

+$1.16

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Chicago Wolves

Invested

$146

Value

$82

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Both legs:

Manitoba Moose$4150¢+$5.74

Chicago Wolves$4150¢-$5.74

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Manitoba Moose

Invested

$77.94

Value

$76.38

PnL

-$1.56

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Chicago Wolves

Invested

$24.21

Value

$23.93

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

sentrioCTR<$100

Chicago Wolves

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.12

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Chicago Wolves

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

NeutralManitoba Moose at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Manitoba Moose

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Manitoba Moose. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Manitoba Moose) and the top 1000 (6 on Chicago Wolves) disagree here.

sharpChicago Wolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrManitoba Moose 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedManitoba Moose 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chicago Wolves 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Manitoba Moose wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.