AHL: Iowa Wild vs. Milwaukee Admirals
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Milwaukee Admirals (60%) · Milwaukee Admirals at 99¢ · $434 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Milwaukee Admirals
5
Milwaukee Admirals 60%
$433.72
$13.89
56.8¢ → 98.9¢
+74% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMilwaukee Admirals at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Milwaukee Admirals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Milwaukee Admiralsavg 56.3¢ | $175.31 | $295.93 | +$120.62 | 37% 198-333 (531) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Milwaukee Admiralsavg 57.1¢ | $55.63 | $92.55 | +$36.92 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Milwaukee Admiralsavg 63¢ | $13.86 | $21.23 | +$7.37 | 50% 157-160 (317) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Iowa Wildavg 22¢ | $88.03 | $14.01 | -$74.03 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Iowa Wildavg 43.5¢ | $87 | $10 | -$77 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
Invested
$175.31
Value
$295.93
PnL
+$120.62
Record
37%
198-333 (531)
Invested
$55.63
Value
$92.55
PnL
+$36.92
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$21.23
PnL
+$7.37
Record
50%
157-160 (317)
Invested
$88.03
Value
$14.01
PnL
-$74.03
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$87
Value
$10
PnL
-$77
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.