Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hamilton Hammers, while the market favors Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (56%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

AHL: Hamilton Hammers vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hamilton Hammers (78%) · Hamilton Hammers at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Hamilton Hammers45¢Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hamilton Hammers

Consensus Traders

Hamilton Hammers 78%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$87.39

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 44.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralHamilton Hammers at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hamilton Hammers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hamilton Hammers45%

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hamilton Hammers7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,656

Combined PnL+$80.23

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins2 traders

Total Value$673.3

Total Shares1,212

Combined PnL+$7.16

Hamilton Hammers — 78%Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Hamilton Hammers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHamilton Hammers 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Hamilton Hammers 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stepanka1234CTR	Hamilton Hammersavg 43.3¢	$831.95	$855.3	+$23.35	— 9-9 (18)
VeryLucky888	Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsavg 55.2¢	$732.88	$549.96	-$0.89	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR	Hamilton Hammersavg 40¢	$438.66	$449.25	+$10.59	51% 168-163 (331)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hamilton Hammersavg 41.9¢	$385.61	$432.62	+$47.01	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
CI cigarettesCTR	Hamilton Hammersavg 40.5¢	$162	$164	+$2	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsavg 50¢	$442	$123.33	+$8.05	69% 136-62 (198)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Hamilton Hammersavg 42.4¢	$80.72	$77.99	-$2.72	42% 1054-1470 (2524)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Hamilton Hammersavg 41¢	$48.38	$48.38	+$0	48% 2231-2388 (4619)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Hamilton Hammersavg 41¢	$4.09	$4.09	+$0	46% 516-615 (1131)

stepanka1234CTR

Hamilton Hammers

Invested

$831.95

Value

$855.3

PnL

+$23.35

Record

—

9-9 (18)

VeryLucky888

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Invested

$732.88

Value

$549.96

PnL

-$0.89

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR

Hamilton Hammers

Invested

$438.66

Value

$449.25

PnL

+$10.59

Record

51%

168-163 (331)

FlaznorpCTR

Hamilton Hammers

Invested

$385.61

Value

$432.62

PnL

+$47.01

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

cigarettesCTR

Hamilton Hammers

Invested

$162

Value

$164

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Invested

$442

Value

$123.33

PnL

+$8.05

Record

69%

136-62 (198)

sentrioCTR<$100

Hamilton Hammers

Invested

$80.72

Value

$77.99

PnL

-$2.72

Record

42%

1054-1470 (2524)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Hamilton Hammers

Invested

$48.38

Value

$48.38

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2231-2388 (4619)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Hamilton Hammers

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

516-615 (1131)

Research grade

NeutralHamilton Hammers at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hamilton Hammers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Hamilton Hammers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHamilton Hammers 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Hamilton Hammers 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hamilton Hammers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.