Will Uganda win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 57¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 14

Yes57¢No43¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$35.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 57¢

-31% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 20 top traders (30%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$21.3K

Total Shares38,756

Combined PnL$-10.5K

No14 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares38,562

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZO Zombie77	Yesavg 82.5¢	$31.5K	$21.0K	$-10.5K	— 13-2 (15)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 18.8¢	$3.2K	$7.0K	+$3.8K	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 20¢	$1.8K	$3.5K	+$1.7K	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 17¢	$543.84	$1.4K	+$895.73	36% 933-1644 (2577)
RN1CTR	Noavg 17.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$10.32	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 17.5¢	$542.18	$541.57	-$0.62	35% 440-800 (1240)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 46.3¢	$245.51	$225.22	-$20.29	36% 948-1669 (2617)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 54¢	$127.77	$128.95	+$1.18	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 28.7¢	$84.53	$128.63	+$44.11	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$87.44	$92.32	+$4.88	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 18.7¢	$35.7	$81.22	+$45.52	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 17.3¢	$69	$70	+$1	52% 820-759 (1579)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$67.42	$68.79	+$1.37	30% 335-776 (1111)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$51	$52.5	+$1.5	49% 279-295 (574)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$37.58	$37.58	+$0	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$26.6	$28	+$1.4	56% 463-370 (833)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 30.2¢	$16.16	$22.97	+$6.81	37% 960-1662 (2622)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$21.47	$19.73	+$0.7	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$8.85	$8.85	+$0	54% 478-400 (878)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 21.2¢	$5.51	$5.33	-$0.18	45% 805-991 (1796)

Zombie77

Yes

Invested

$31,496.32

Value

$21.0K

PnL

$-10.5K

Record

—

13-2 (15)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$3,193.31

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,808.91

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$543.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$895.73

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,385.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$10.32

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$542.18

Value

$541.57

PnL

-$0.62

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$245.51

Value

$225.22

PnL

-$20.29

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$127.77

Value

$128.95

PnL

+$1.18

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$84.53

Value

$128.63

PnL

+$44.11

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.44

Value

$92.32

PnL

+$4.88

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$35.7

Value

$81.22

PnL

+$45.52

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$69

Value

$70

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.42

Value

$68.79

PnL

+$1.37

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Invested

$51

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

279-295 (574)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.58

Value

$37.58

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$26.6

Value

$28

PnL

+$1.4

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$16.16

Value

$22.97

PnL

+$6.81

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$21.47

Value

$19.73

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

RichieRicher<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.85

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

478-400 (878)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$5.51

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$0.18

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 20 top traders (30%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.