Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Botswana — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Botswana

Spread: Uganda (-1.5)

Resolved Botswana. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Botswana. The smart money was right.

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Botswana 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$973.37

Combined PnL

-$336.58

Botswana

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Uganda0%

Botswana100%

Botswana2 traders

Total Value$849.64

Total Shares850

Combined PnL-$33.78

Uganda3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,574

Combined PnL-$302.8

Botswana — 40%Uganda — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Botswanaavg 77.6¢	$875.19	$840.55	-$34.64	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Ugandaavg 21.5¢	$647.65	$123.73	-$523.92	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
└ Uganda leg	Ugandaavg 21.5¢	$536.91	—	-$536.91
└ Botswana leg	Botswanaavg 89.5¢	$110.73	$123.73	+$13
SN SnakeBallCTR	Ugandaavg 11.5¢	$133.01	—	-$133.01	47% 936-1036 (1972)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Ugandaavg 12¢	$91.36	—	-$91.36	36% 477-850 (1327)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Ugandaavg 12¢	$78.43	—	-$78.43	45% 300-362 (662)
VeryLucky888<$100	Botswanaavg 67¢	$8.23	$9.09	+$0.86	54% 1417-1228 (2645)