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NoYesNoNoYes
poshposhCTR<$100NoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Uganda vs. Botswana: Draw at halftime?
Resolved Yes. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$332.02
Combined PnL
-$34.48
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$119.08
Total Shares119
Combined PnL+$44.7
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares185
Combined PnL-$79.18
Yes — 33%No — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 84.3¢ | $231.45 | $212.93 | -$18.51 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.7¢ | $48.34 | $212.93 | +$164.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.3¢ | $183.1 | — | -$183.1 | |
LI Limousin | Yesavg 68.2¢ | $73.1 | $107.14 | +$34.04 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.6¢ | $48.39 | — | -$48.39 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $22.63 | — | -$22.63 | 34% 377-716 (1093) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $6.34 | $11.94 | +$10.66 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $6.51 | — | -$6.51 | 49% 1169-1236 (2405) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $1.65 | — | -$1.65 | 45% 836-1013 (1849) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$231.45
Value
$212.93
PnL
-$18.51
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Both legs:
Yes$48.3422.7¢+$164.59
No$183.184.3¢-$183.1
LI
LimousinInvested
$73.1
Value
$107.14
PnL
+$34.04
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
GO
GoalLineGhostCTR<$100Invested
$48.39
Value
—
PnL
-$48.39
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
SL
SlickRick123CTR<$100Invested
$22.63
Value
—
PnL
-$22.63
Record
34%
377-716 (1093)
FE
ferdinand2<$100Invested
$6.34
Value
$11.94
PnL
+$10.66
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$6.51
Value
—
PnL
-$6.51
Record
49%
1169-1236 (2405)
LR
lryyyCTR<$100Invested
$1.65
Value
—
PnL
-$1.65
Record
45%
836-1013 (1849)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x5d52ca31...534eb8
Slug
afcq-uga-bot-2026-11-14-halftime-result-draw