Uganda vs. Botswana: 1st Half O/U 2.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 100¢ · $400 held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$399.99

Combined PnL

$36.87

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$398.75

Total Shares391

Combined PnL+$45.28

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.24

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$8.41

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75.2¢	$115.1	$128.82	+$13.72	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
SU suitcase6628	Underavg 92.5¢	$111	$119.94	+$8.94	64% 619-346 (965)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 90¢	$61.38	$68.17	+$6.79	48% 1130-1207 (2337)
dips.<$100	Underavg 76.6¢	$32.16	$41.98	+$9.82	47% 971-1102 (2073)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 85.7¢	$22.25	$25.95	+$3.7	45% 659-820 (1479)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 80¢	$7.13	$8.91	+$1.78	38% 550-886 (1436)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 89¢	$4.45	$5	+$0.55	83% 722-152 (874)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$1.14	$0.6	-$0.54	36% 953-1669 (2622)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$1.14	$0.6	-$0.54	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$6.82	$0.03	-$6.79	36% 937-1647 (2584)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.55	$0	-$0.55	36% 443-803 (1246)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$115.1

Value

$128.82

PnL

+$13.72

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

suitcase6628

Under

Invested

$111

Value

$119.94

PnL

+$8.94

Record

64%

619-346 (965)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$61.38

Value

$68.17

PnL

+$6.79

Record

48%

1130-1207 (2337)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$32.16

Value

$41.98

PnL

+$9.82

Record

47%

971-1102 (2073)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$22.25

Value

$25.95

PnL

+$3.7

Record

45%

659-820 (1479)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$7.13

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$1.78

Record

38%

550-886 (1436)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$4.45

Value

PnL

+$0.55

Record

83%

722-152 (874)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.54

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.54

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.82

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.79

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.55

Value

PnL

-$0.55

Record

36%

443-803 (1246)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.