Will Uganda vs. Botswana end in a draw?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 68¢ · $268 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$267.91
$0.08
70.8¢ → 68¢
-4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Noavg 67¢ | $100.5 | $104.25 | +$3.75 | 49% 1117-1185 (2302) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $73.97 | $66.11 | -$7.86 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $31.05 | $30.84 | -$0.21 | 30% 335-776 (1111) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $26.46 | $30.67 | +$4.21 | 50% 2523-2479 (5002) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $18.43 | $18.43 | +$0 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.19 | $7.24 | +$0.05 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $4.76 | $4.85 | +$0.09 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.65 | $3.6 | -$0.05 | 42% 995-1363 (2358) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $1.81 | $1.91 | +$0.1 | 4% 19-516 (535) |
poshposhInvested
$100.5
Value
$104.25
PnL
+$3.75
Record
49%
1117-1185 (2302)
Invested
$73.97
Value
$66.11
PnL
-$7.86
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$31.05
Value
$30.84
PnL
-$0.21
Record
30%
335-776 (1111)
Invested
$26.46
Value
$30.67
PnL
+$4.21
Record
50%
2523-2479 (5002)
Invested
$18.43
Value
$18.43
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.19
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.09
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.05
Record
42%
995-1363 (2358)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.91
PnL
+$0.1
Record
4%
19-516 (535)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.