Will Botswana win on 2026-11-14?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 90¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

-$25.5

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 89.8¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,961

Combined PnL-$27.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$122.08

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL+$1.96

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 89¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$59.46	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
└ No leg	Noavg 89¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$6.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12¢	$685.55	$619.48	-$66.07
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 88.7¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$29.94	47% 899-999 (1898)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 87.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0.13	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
LI Limousin	Noavg 86.3¢	$224.36	$234.37	+$10.01	36% 937-1647 (2584)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 87.4¢	$162.04	$160.45	-$1.6	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
TH thirdt1me	Noavg 94.9¢	$164.68	$139.08	-$10.36	49% 281-295 (576)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 10.6¢	$110.68	$114.85	+$4.18	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$94.32	$95.77	+$1.45	37% 964-1664 (2628)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 86¢	$63.64	$65.34	+$1.7	55% 469-381 (850)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$24.86	$25.61	+$0.75	30% 340-779 (1119)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 90¢	$23.62	$23.6	-$0.02	37% 357-610 (967)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$22.03	$22.48	+$0.45	75% 239-80 (319)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$17.24	$17.23	-$0.01	37% 972-1637 (2609)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$9.44	$7.23	-$2.22	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$5.56	$5.55	-$0.01	36% 953-1669 (2622)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$3,070.34

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$59.46

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

Both legs:

No$2,381.2389¢+$6.61

Yes$685.5512¢-$66.07

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,453.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$29.94

Record

47%

899-999 (1898)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,079.82

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

Limousin

Invested

$224.36

Value

$234.37

PnL

+$10.01

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$162.04

Value

$160.45

PnL

-$1.6

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

thirdt1me

Invested

$164.68

Value

$139.08

PnL

-$10.36

Record

49%

281-295 (576)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.68

Value

$114.85

PnL

+$4.18

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$94.32

Value

$95.77

PnL

+$1.45

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$63.64

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$1.7

Record

55%

469-381 (850)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$24.86

Value

$25.61

PnL

+$0.75

Record

30%

340-779 (1119)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$23.62

Value

$23.6

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$22.03

Value

$22.48

PnL

+$0.45

Record

75%

239-80 (319)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$17.24

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$0.01

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.44

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$2.22

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$5.56

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.01

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.3%

89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.