Will Tunisia win on 2026-11-13?

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 76¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 13

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$74.86

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 75.5¢

+48% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares7,645

Combined PnL+$773.78

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,835

Combined PnL-$698.93

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$4.4K	$3.4K	$-1.0K	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.7¢	$3.5K	$2.6K	-$966.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.1¢	$899.99	$850.79	-$49.2
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 30.3¢	$688.76	$1.7K	+$1.0K	6% 17-277 (294)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 64.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$69.51	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ No leg	Noavg 34.6¢	$549.12	$746.18	+$197.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.9¢	$694.68	$567.13	-$127.54
LI LightParadox	Noavg 44.3¢	$653.06	$1.1K	+$459.99	35% 749-1385 (2134)
RN1	Noavg 68.5¢	$1.4K	$975.82	-$413.6	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 70.6¢	$716.96	$569.46	-$147.51	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 70.6¢	$710.71	$559.33	-$151.38	33% 251-499 (750)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 69.6¢	$713.11	$532.11	-$165.52	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 74¢	$662.37	$420.7	-$241.68	36% 326-587 (913)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 70¢	$401.48	$303.98	-$97.5	41% 91-132 (223)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 47.3¢	$154.49	$153.22	-$1.28	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 41¢	$133.59	$153.14	+$19.55	36% 761-1361 (2122)
tradecraftARB<$100	Yesavg 69.6¢	$111.22	$99.52	-$11.69	26% 250-703 (953)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69.6¢	$92.41	$70.33	-$22.07
└ No leg	Noavg 30.3¢	$18.81	$29.19	+$10.38
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$79.55	$97.28	+$17.73	56% 307-245 (552)
└ No leg	Noavg 26.9¢	$37.03	$64.62	+$27.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69¢	$42.53	$32.67	-$9.86
NO NotJump	Noavg 74¢	$152.49	$96.81	-$55.68	53% 631-566 (1197)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 71.9¢	$213.68	$71.83	-$140.87	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 51.8¢	$76.93	$69.83	-$7.1	8% 27-316 (343)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$74.17	$69.57	-$4.6	35% 735-1379 (2114)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76¢	$61.78	$43.08	-$18.7
└ No leg	Noavg 29¢	$12.39	$26.49	+$14.1
poshposh<$100	Noavg 62¢	$47.31	$35.86	-$11.45	46% 781-902 (1683)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$20.79	$27.29	+$6.49	43% 808-1065 (1873)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 62¢	$15.5	$11.75	-$3.75	32% 291-613 (904)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$10	$7.36	-$2.64	10% 11-100 (111)
dips.<$100	Noavg 58¢	$7.1	$5.75	-$1.35	46% 741-864 (1605)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.82	$5.17	-$1.65	45% 593-733 (1326)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 29¢	$2.22	$4.75	+$2.53	53% 6618-5816 (12434)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$4,428.16

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

No$3,528.1764.7¢-$966.16

Yes$899.9956.1¢-$49.2

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$688.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

17-277 (294)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,243.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$69.51

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

No$549.1234.6¢+$197.06

Yes$694.6864.9¢-$127.54

LightParadox

Invested

$653.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$459.99

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

RN1

Invested

$1,389.42

Value

$975.82

PnL

-$413.6

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$716.96

Value

$569.46

PnL

-$147.51

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$710.71

Value

$559.33

PnL

-$151.38

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$713.11

Value

$532.11

PnL

-$165.52

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$662.37

Value

$420.7

PnL

-$241.68

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$401.48

Value

$303.98

PnL

-$97.5

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$154.49

Value

$153.22

PnL

-$1.28

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

MadridTime

Invested

$133.59

Value

$153.14

PnL

+$19.55

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

tradecraftARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$111.22

Value

$99.52

PnL

-$11.69

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

Both legs:

Yes$92.4169.6¢-$22.07

No$18.8130.3¢+$10.38

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.55

Value

$97.28

PnL

+$17.73

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

Both legs:

No$37.0326.9¢+$27.59

Yes$42.5369¢-$9.86

NotJump

Invested

$152.49

Value

$96.81

PnL

-$55.68

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$213.68

Value

$71.83

PnL

-$140.87

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$76.93

Value

$69.83

PnL

-$7.1

Record

27-316 (343)

LimousinARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.17

Value

$69.57

PnL

-$4.6

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

Both legs:

Yes$61.7876¢-$18.7

No$12.3929¢+$14.1

poshposh<$100

Invested

$47.31

Value

$35.86

PnL

-$11.45

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.79

Value

$27.29

PnL

+$6.49

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

$11.75

PnL

-$3.75

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$2.64

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

dips.<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$1.35

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$1.65

Record

45%

593-733 (1326)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$2.53

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 21 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.