Tunisia vs. Libya: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$92.85

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 98.3¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,305

Combined PnL+$77.89

Over5 traders

Total Value$42.96

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$14.96

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 86.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$11.34	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 88.5¢	$992.8	$1.1K	+$64.98	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 94¢	$47	$47.5	+$0.5	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$8.7	$20.65	+$11.96	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$13.5	$9.5	-$4	39% 37-59 (96)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$3.13	$7.43	+$4.3	32% 291-613 (904)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 80.2¢	$4.76	$5.83	+$1.07	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$2.08	$3.96	+$1.87	47% 786-902 (1688)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$0.6	$1.42	+$0.82	36% 326-587 (913)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,896.86

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$11.34

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$992.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$64.98

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$47

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.7

Value

$20.65

PnL

+$11.96

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.5

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$4

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.13

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$4.3

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$1.07

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.08

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$1.87

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.6

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.82

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.