Tunisia vs. Libya: O/U 2.5

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (85%) · Under at 80¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 13

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 85%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$874.15

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 79.5¢

+37% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,765

Combined PnL+$865.75

Over2 traders

Total Value$44.3

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$8.39

Under — 85%Over — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 43.2¢	$4.1K	$4.4K	+$295.39	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.2¢	$2.7K	$3.3K	+$660.14
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$364.75
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 61.5¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$5.91	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.5¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$277.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.5¢	$1.2K	$951.06	-$283.58
AR ARocky33	Underavg 57.4¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$563.32	78% 748-213 (961)
RO Rocky31	Underavg 58.9¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$414.29	36% 74-131 (205)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$875.45	$948.45	+$73	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.9¢	$407.56	$512.77	+$105.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$467.89	$435.68	-$32.21
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 68.5¢	$274.28	$184.3	-$89.97	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
LI Limousin	Underavg 46¢	$180.43	$180.43	-$0	35% 736-1380 (2116)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 59.6¢	$198.13	$179.96	-$18.17	39% 37-59 (96)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.4¢	$84.13	$91.98	+$7.85
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.6¢	$114.01	$87.99	-$26.02
SU suntori	Underavg 81.6¢	$100.93	$56.9	-$44.03	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 37¢	$12.95	$27.65	+$14.7	36% 763-1361 (2124)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$22.6	$26.48	+$3.88	47% 786-902 (1688)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 44¢	$22.08	$23.08	+$1	48% 677-745 (1422)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 36¢	$15.19	$19.41	+$4.22	36% 326-587 (913)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 45¢	$16.24	$17.87	+$1.63	34% 736-1405 (2141)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 40.3¢	$13.31	$17.82	+$4.51	45% 595-734 (1329)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 65.5¢	$6.55	$6.95	+$0.4	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.3	+$0.2	35% 750-1386 (2136)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,135.93

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$295.39

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Both legs:

Over$2,651.1643.2¢+$660.14

Under$1,484.7761¢-$364.75

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,859.49

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$5.91

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

Both legs:

Under$2,624.8561.5¢+$277.67

Over$1,234.6441.5¢-$283.58

ARocky33

Under

Invested

$1,499.55

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$563.32

Record

78%

748-213 (961)

Rocky31

Under

Invested

$1,219.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$414.29

Record

36%

74-131 (205)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$875.45

Value

$948.45

PnL

+$73

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Over$407.5642.9¢+$105.21

Under$467.8949.4¢-$32.21

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$274.28

Value

$184.3

PnL

-$89.97

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$180.43

Value

$180.43

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$198.13

Value

$179.96

PnL

-$18.17

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

Both legs:

Over$84.1349.4¢+$7.85

Under$114.0159.6¢-$26.02

suntori

Under

Invested

$100.93

Value

$56.9

PnL

-$44.03

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$12.95

Value

$27.65

PnL

+$14.7

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.6

Value

$26.48

PnL

+$3.88

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$22.08

Value

$23.08

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$15.19

Value

$19.41

PnL

+$4.22

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$16.24

Value

$17.87

PnL

+$1.63

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.31

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$4.51

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$6.55

Value

$6.95

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.2

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (14 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.