Will Libya win on 2026-11-13?

18 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 59¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 13

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.8K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 58.5¢

-24% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 25 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares15,823

Combined PnL+$3.3K

No18 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares19,643

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes — 28%No — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO ForMyFamily1CTR	Yesavg 9.5¢	$1.0K	$4.4K	+$3.4K	— 4-3 (7)
RN1	Noavg 79.9¢	$4.5K	$4.2K	-$351.94	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65.8¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$344.43	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
WoaifacaiCTR	Yesavg 41.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$18.91	63% 247-148 (395)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60.5¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$184.33	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
fxwd12345	Noavg 91¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$266.64	76% 32-10 (42)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90.6¢	$941.08	$859.21	-$81.87	33% 251-499 (750)
poshposh	Noavg 90¢	$810	$711	-$99	46% 781-902 (1683)
MO mouzsynapse	Noavg 58¢	$518.52	$706.26	+$187.74	41% 91-132 (223)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 91.3¢	$824.74	$706.07	-$109.55	53% 1030-921 (1951)
NM NM-P	Noavg 90.4¢	$755.44	$704.66	-$50.78	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
VE Venusian	Noavg 92¢	$614.02	$390.44	-$223.58	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 58¢	$155.24	$211.45	+$56.21	48% 677-745 (1422)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$157.03	$156.33	-$0.7	43% 808-1065 (1873)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$96.77	$141.71	+$44.93	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.5¢	$57.46	$77.6	+$20.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.9¢	$39.31	$64.1	+$24.8
LI LightParadox	Noavg 92¢	$154.93	$98.52	-$56.41	35% 749-1385 (2134)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 91.9¢	$121.94	$67.69	-$54.25	30% 77-180 (257)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 93¢	$93	$51	-$42	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$73.46	$41.37	-$32.09	56% 307-245 (552)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$16.8	$33.2	+$16.4	8% 27-316 (343)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 91¢	$27.21	$26.26	-$0.94	26% 250-703 (953)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$41	$21	-$20	53% 631-566 (1197)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 53¢	$9.54	$14.22	+$4.68	32% 291-613 (904)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.14	$4.3	+$3.16	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.95	+$1.05	36% 761-1361 (2122)

ForMyFamily1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

—

4-3 (7)

RN1

Invested

$4,523.64

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$351.94

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,117.39

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$344.43

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

WoaifacaiCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,999.8

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$18.91

Record

63%

247-148 (395)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,587.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$184.33

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

fxwd12345

Invested

$2,022.02

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$266.64

Record

76%

32-10 (42)

GC-P

Invested

$941.08

Value

$859.21

PnL

-$81.87

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

poshposh

Invested

$810

Value

$711

PnL

-$99

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

mouzsynapse

Invested

$518.52

Value

$706.26

PnL

+$187.74

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$824.74

Value

$706.07

PnL

-$109.55

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

NM-P

Invested

$755.44

Value

$704.66

PnL

-$50.78

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Venusian

Invested

$614.02

Value

$390.44

PnL

-$223.58

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

SnakeBall

Invested

$155.24

Value

$211.45

PnL

+$56.21

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.03

Value

$156.33

PnL

-$0.7

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$96.77

Value

$141.71

PnL

+$44.93

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Both legs:

No$57.4658.5¢+$20.14

Yes$39.3112.9¢+$24.8

LightParadox

Invested

$154.93

Value

$98.52

PnL

-$56.41

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Oddstorm

Invested

$121.94

Value

$67.69

PnL

-$54.25

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$93

Value

$51

PnL

-$42

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$73.46

Value

$41.37

PnL

-$32.09

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.8

Value

$33.2

PnL

+$16.4

Record

27-316 (343)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$27.21

Value

$26.26

PnL

-$0.94

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41

Value

$21

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

$14.22

PnL

+$4.68

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$3.16

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$1.05

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

18 of 25 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.