Tunisia vs. Libya: Both Teams to Score

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 84¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 13

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 84¢

+70% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,524

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,933

Combined PnL-$305.36

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 49.8¢	$3.0K	$4.3K	+$1.4K	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$332.9	48% 28-30 (58)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 45.7¢	$330.58	$329.58	-$1	39% 37-59 (96)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 22¢	$22	$81	+$59	36% 763-1361 (2124)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$44.93	$69.24	+$24.31	46% 741-865 (1606)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$37.4	$64.33	+$26.93	63% 464-269 (733)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$78	$43	-$35	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 58.5¢	$22.46	$28.59	+$6.14	47% 786-902 (1688)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$12.04	$17.47	+$5.43	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5.44	$9.36	+$3.92	50% 118-117 (235)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$7.13	$7.13	+$0	34% 736-1405 (2141)
US User7429CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.8	$4.82	+$2.02	36% 252-442 (694)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.75	+$0.15	45% 595-734 (1329)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.28	$3.1	+$0.81	48% 677-745 (1422)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$2.59	-$0.66	43% 809-1065 (1874)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.75	$1.97	+$0.22	36% 326-587 (913)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,990.47

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,525.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$332.9

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$330.58

Value

$329.58

PnL

-$1

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$81

PnL

+$59

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.93

Value

$69.24

PnL

+$24.31

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.4

Value

$64.33

PnL

+$26.93

Record

63%

464-269 (733)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$43

PnL

-$35

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.46

Value

$28.59

PnL

+$6.14

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

$17.47

PnL

+$5.43

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.44

Value

$9.36

PnL

+$3.92

Record

50%

118-117 (235)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.13

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

User7429CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$2.02

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.81

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.66

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.97

PnL

+$0.22

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.