Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Senegal vs. Sudan: O/U 3.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $181 held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

Total Value

$181.46

Combined PnL

-$394.68

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$126.43

Total Shares998

Combined PnL-$396.31

Over1 trader

Total Value$54.97

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$1.62

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 61¢	$156.41	$84.62	-$71.79	46% 485-564 (1049)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 97¢	$53.35	$54.97	+$1.62	43% 374-496 (870)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 59.4¢	$97.01	$34.85	-$53.84	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 52.8¢	$95.31	$5.09	-$90.22	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$2.95	$1.65	-$1.3	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 30.2¢	$90.52	$0.15	-$90.37	35% 221-416 (637)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$81.4	$0.07	-$81.33	29% 206-510 (716)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$3.3	$0.01	-$3.3	33% 563-1169 (1732)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 53.8¢	$4.16	$0	-$4.16	44% 431-541 (972)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$156.41

Value

$84.62

PnL

-$71.79

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$53.35

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$1.62

Record

43%

374-496 (870)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$97.01

Value

$34.85

PnL

-$53.84

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.31

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$90.22

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.95

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$1.3

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90.52

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$90.37

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.4

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$81.33

Record

29%

206-510 (716)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.3

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.16

Value

PnL

-$4.16

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.