Senegal vs. Sudan: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$2.36

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 85¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$623.61

Total Shares728

Combined PnL-$1.7

Under6 traders

Total Value$192.31

Total Shares914

Combined PnL+$4.06

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 84.1¢	$611.02	$608.92	-$2.1	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 41¢	$399.01	$209.18	-$189.83	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$301.75	$110.36	-$191.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 83.7¢	$97.26	$98.82	+$1.56
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 15¢	$102.71	$102.71	-$0	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$58.73	$65.08	+$6.35	52% 784-728 (1512)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 43.8¢	$14.95	$14.85	-$0.1	46% 443-515 (958)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 42¢	$6.64	$8.94	+$2.29	47% 549-607 (1156)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$6.15	$6.53	+$0.38	32% 542-1134 (1676)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 85¢	$7.65	$5.75	-$1.9	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$1.76	$1.65	-$0.11	33% 556-1141 (1697)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$1.5	-$2.45	33% 539-1116 (1655)

RN1

Over

Invested

$611.02

Value

$608.92

PnL

-$2.1

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$399.01

Value

$209.18

PnL

-$189.83

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

Under$301.7541¢-$191.39

Over$97.2683.7¢+$1.56

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$102.71

Value

$102.71

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.73

Value

$65.08

PnL

+$6.35

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.95

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$6.64

Value

$8.94

PnL

+$2.29

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.53

PnL

+$0.38

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$7.65

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$1.9

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.11

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.95

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$2.45

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.