Will Sudan win on 2026-11-12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$0.85

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 96.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,070

Combined PnL+$0.85

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.05

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96.8¢	$665.68	$666.03	+$0.34	37% 179-310 (489)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.8¢	$265.55	$265.69	+$0.14	47% 350-393 (743)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$41.37	$41.32	-$0.05	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 96¢	$31.68	$31.94	+$0.26	53% 172-153 (325)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 96¢	$16.15	$16.29	+$0.14	52% 597-541 (1138)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$11.71	$11.73	+$0.02	40% 438-657 (1095)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$4.85	$4.84	-$0.01	49% 973-998 (1971)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.05	$1.05	+$0	— 5-3 (8)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$665.68

Value

$666.03

PnL

+$0.34

Record

37%

179-310 (489)

SnakeBall

Invested

$265.55

Value

$265.69

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$41.37

Value

$41.32

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.68

Value

$31.94

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

172-153 (325)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$16.15

Value

$16.29

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$11.71

Value

$11.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.84

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-3 (8)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.