Will Senegal win on 2026-11-12?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 90¢ · $485 held · ends Nov 12

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$484.85

Combined PnL

$0.22

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 89.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$459.63

Total Shares501

Combined PnL+$2.32

No4 traders

Total Value$25.23

Total Shares231

Combined PnL-$2.1

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 88¢	$239.44	$243.04	+$3.6	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
SU suntori	Yesavg 89.6¢	$190.47	$189.19	-$1.28	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$23.73	$21.75	-$1.98	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$17.4	$17.4	-$0	52% 185-171 (356)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$10	$10	+$0	0% 0-94 (94)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$3.25	$3.1	-$0.15	32% 538-1125 (1663)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.24	$0.25	+$0.01	41% 544-784 (1328)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.11	$0.12	+$0.01	36% 209-368 (577)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$239.44

Value

$243.04

PnL

+$3.6

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$190.47

Value

$189.19

PnL

-$1.28

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$23.73

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$1.98

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

185-171 (356)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

0-94 (94)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.15

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.