Senegal vs. Sudan: 1st Half O/U 0.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 100¢ · $589 held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

Total Value

$589.22

Combined PnL

$116.53

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$571.22

Total Shares573

Combined PnL+$113.5

Under3 traders

Total Value$18

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$3.03

Over — 70%Under — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 46.8¢	$176.93	$231.27	+$54.34	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
SU suitcase6628	Overavg 98¢	$107.8	$109.45	+$1.65	63% 369-218 (587)
RN1	Overavg 44¢	$79.56	$105.16	+$25.61	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 45¢	$22.5	$49.75	+$27.25	53% 6207-5499 (11706)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 90.8¢	$41.76	$45.77	+$4.01	87% 71-11 (82)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 97¢	$19.53	$20.03	+$0.5	47% 549-607 (1156)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 37.5¢	$7.5	$10	+$2.5	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 98¢	$9.64	$9.79	+$0.15	42% 353-481 (834)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$5.17	$5.5	+$0.33	32% 542-1134 (1676)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.5	+$0.2	34% 564-1116 (1680)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$176.93

Value

$231.27

PnL

+$54.34

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

suitcase6628

Over

Invested

$107.8

Value

$109.45

PnL

+$1.65

Record

63%

369-218 (587)

RN1

Over

Invested

$79.56

Value

$105.16

PnL

+$25.61

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$22.5

Value

$49.75

PnL

+$27.25

Record

53%

6207-5499 (11706)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$41.76

Value

$45.77

PnL

+$4.01

Record

87%

71-11 (82)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$19.53

Value

$20.03

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$9.64

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

353-481 (834)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.33

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.