South Africa vs. Kenya: O/U 4.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 13

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$188.26

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 97.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,142

Combined PnL-$89.55

Over10 traders

Total Value$132.76

Total Shares2,414

Combined PnL-$98.71

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-80 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 94.1¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	-$96.26	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SM smithagent	Underavg 91.3¢	$126.28	$134.35	+$8.07	43% 507-662 (1169)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 95¢	$83.03	$82.16	-$0.87	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 9¢	$116	$77.33	-$38.67	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 7.1¢	$30.24	$25.43	-$4.81	48% 677-745 (1422)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 12.6¢	$56.94	$16.09	-$40.85	36% 326-587 (913)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 86¢	$11.06	$10.97	-$0.09	82% 538-116 (654)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 89.8¢	$10.5	$9.96	-$0.53	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
dips.<$100	Underavg 93.8¢	$5.99	$6.12	+$0.13	46% 741-865 (1606)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$8	$6	-$2	53% 634-568 (1202)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$9.65	$3.22	-$6.43	39% 37-59 (96)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$4.03	$2.01	-$2.01	47% 786-902 (1688)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$3	$1.2	-$1.8	35% 736-1380 (2116)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 5.7¢	$1.2	$0.74	-$0.46	34% 736-1405 (2141)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 10.1¢	$1.49	$0.43	-$1.06	36% 763-1361 (2124)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$0.91	$0.3	-$0.61	56% 4863-3816 (8679)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$4,946.68

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$96.26

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

smithagent

Under

Invested

$126.28

Value

$134.35

PnL

+$8.07

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$83.03

Value

$82.16

PnL

-$0.87

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$116

Value

$77.33

PnL

-$38.67

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.24

Value

$25.43

PnL

-$4.81

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.94

Value

$16.09

PnL

-$40.85

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$11.06

Value

$10.97

PnL

-$0.09

Record

82%

538-116 (654)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$10.5

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$0.53

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$5.99

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.65

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$6.43

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.03

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$2.01

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$0.46

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.49

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$1.06

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.61

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-80 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.