Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

South Africa vs. Kenya: O/U 3.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.2¢ · $676 held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$676.18

Combined PnL

-$547.69

Smart Money Entry

26.8¢ → 0.2¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$600.18

Total Shares4,036

Combined PnL-$577.96

Over6 traders

Total Value$76

Total Shares137

Combined PnL+$30.27

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 76¢	$182.71	$209.15	+$26.44	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 70.8¢	$792.5	$176.21	-$608.98	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
RN1CTR	Underavg 73.9¢	$91	$101.22	+$10.21	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 24¢	$8.94	$32.8	+$23.86	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 71.4¢	$33.95	$30.4	+$1.45	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 66.2¢	$44.93	$29.82	-$6.04	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 31.7¢	$20.77	$18.02	-$2.75	36% 326-587 (913)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$12.4	$17.39	+$5	82% 538-116 (654)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 1.1¢	$20.23	$16.83	-$3.4	46% 741-865 (1606)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 49¢	$8.31	$12.99	+$4.68	47% 786-902 (1688)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 1.3¢	$13.63	$10.57	-$3.06	43% 507-662 (1169)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 19¢	$2.02	$10.24	+$8.22	98% 343-6 (349)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$4.22	$5.83	+$1.61	39% 37-59 (96)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$3.95	$2.77	-$1.19	32% 291-613 (904)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 35¢	$3.5	$1.3	-$2.2	34% 736-1405 (2141)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$0.65	-$1.55	35% 736-1380 (2116)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$182.71

Value

$209.15

PnL

+$26.44

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$792.5

Value

$176.21

PnL

-$608.98

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$91

Value

$101.22

PnL

+$10.21

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$8.94

Value

$32.8

PnL

+$23.86

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.95

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$1.45

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.93

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$6.04

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$20.77

Value

$18.02

PnL

-$2.75

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.4

Value

$17.39

PnL

+$5

Record

82%

538-116 (654)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.23

Value

$16.83

PnL

-$3.4

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$8.31

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$4.68

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.63

Value

$10.57

PnL

-$3.06

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$2.02

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$8.22

Record

98%

343-6 (349)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.22

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$1.61

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.95

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$1.19

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$3.5

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$2.2

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$1.55

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.