South Africa vs. Kenya: O/U 2.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 77¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$308.99

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 76.5¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,284

Combined PnL+$348.89

Under8 traders

Total Value$52.75

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$39.9

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 65.4¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$350.8	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SE sentrio	Overavg 80¢	$260.14	$258.52	-$1.63	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$11.11	$11.35	+$0.24	35% 735-1379 (2114)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$31.7	$11.01	-$17.99	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 38.8¢	$16.35	$8.64	-$7.71	36% 326-587 (913)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 80¢	$9.96	$8.31	-$1.65	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 18.8¢	$7.45	$8.11	+$0.66	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 45¢	$4.28	$5.14	+$0.86	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$4.37	$4.69	+$0.33	48% 677-745 (1422)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$9.52	$4.07	-$5.45	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$12.64	$3.54	-$9.1	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.55	$3.06	+$0.51	35% 749-1385 (2134)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$2.22	$1.34	-$0.88	34% 735-1404 (2139)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,926.43

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$350.8

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$260.14

Value

$258.52

PnL

-$1.63

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.11

Value

$11.35

PnL

+$0.24

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.7

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$17.99

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.35

Value

$8.64

PnL

-$7.71

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$9.96

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$1.65

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.45

Value

$8.11

PnL

+$0.66

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$4.28

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.86

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$5.45

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.64

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$9.1

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.51

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$0.88

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.