Spread: South Africa (-1.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Kenya (38%) · Kenya at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

South Africa14¢Kenya86¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kenya

Consensus Traders

Kenya 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$151.27

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 86.5¢

+71% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKenya at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kenya

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

South Africa14%

Kenya87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kenya5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,438

Combined PnL+$162.74

South Africa8 traders

Total Value$135.63

Total Shares312

Combined PnL-$11.47

Kenya — 38%South Africa — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Kenya. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kenya) and the top 1000 (10 on South Africa) disagree here.

ctrSouth Africa 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedKenya 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000South Africa 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Kenyaavg 51¢	$780.84	$924.86	+$193.03	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
VeryLucky888	Kenyaavg 53.5¢	$373.96	$290	+$67.97	53% 1030-921 (1951)
MA MadridTime	Kenyaavg 49¢	$367.36	$277.39	-$89.97	36% 761-1361 (2122)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	South Africaavg 50.6¢	$297.8	$217.08	-$80.72	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Kenya leg	Kenyaavg 49.2¢	$77.31	$123.4	+$46.09
└ South Africa leg	South Africaavg 50.6¢	$220.49	$93.68	-$126.81
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	South Africaavg 51¢	$63.24	$80.6	+$17.36	56% 307-245 (552)
rayvanmechelen	Kenyaavg 50¢	$105.02	$77.71	-$27.3	6% 17-277 (294)
poshposh<$100	Kenyaavg 40.5¢	$24.11	$43.12	+$19.02	46% 781-902 (1683)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	South Africaavg 49¢	$19.18	$25.44	+$6.26	33% 88-181 (269)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	South Africaavg 46¢	$39.99	$13.47	-$26.52	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
RN1CTR<$100	South Africaavg 46¢	$9.2	$5.5	-$3.7	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	South Africaavg 40¢	$6.65	$4.57	-$2.08	48% 677-745 (1422)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	South Africaavg 30¢	$2.57	$2.36	-$0.21	35% 749-1385 (2134)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	South Africaavg 33¢	$3.72	$2.31	-$1.41	82% 537-115 (652)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	South Africaavg 51¢	$2.55	$1.38	-$1.17	45% 593-733 (1326)

GoalLineGhost

Kenya

Invested

$780.84

Value

$924.86

PnL

+$193.03

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

VeryLucky888

Kenya

Invested

$373.96

Value

$290

PnL

+$67.97

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

MadridTime

Kenya

Invested

$367.36

Value

$277.39

PnL

-$89.97

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

FlaznorpARB<$100

South Africa

Invested

$297.8

Value

$217.08

PnL

-$80.72

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Kenya$77.3149.2¢+$46.09

South Africa$220.4950.6¢-$126.81

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

South Africa

Invested

$63.24

Value

$80.6

PnL

+$17.36

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

rayvanmechelen

Kenya

Invested

$105.02

Value

$77.71

PnL

-$27.3

Record

17-277 (294)

poshposh<$100

Kenya

Invested

$24.11

Value

$43.12

PnL

+$19.02

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

biying99999CTR<$100

South Africa

Invested

$19.18

Value

$25.44

PnL

+$6.26

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

suntoriCTR<$100

South Africa

Invested

$39.99

Value

$13.47

PnL

-$26.52

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

RN1CTR<$100

South Africa

Invested

$9.2

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$3.7

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

South Africa

Invested

$6.65

Value

$4.57

PnL

-$2.08

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

South Africa

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.21

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

South Africa

Invested

$3.72

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$1.41

Record

82%

537-115 (652)

lryyyCTR<$100

South Africa

Invested

$2.55

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$1.17

Record

45%

593-733 (1326)

Research grade

NeutralKenya at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kenya

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Kenya. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kenya) and the top 1000 (10 on South Africa) disagree here.

ctrSouth Africa 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedKenya 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000South Africa 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kenya wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.