Will South Africa win on 2026-11-13?

11 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 64¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 13

Yes64¢No36¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.0K

Combined PnL

$71.73

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 63.5¢

-10% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 26 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares33,000

Combined PnL$-1.9K

No15 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares36,192

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 59% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 52% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 70.2¢	$16.3K	$15.0K	$-1.3K	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 29.8¢	$6.5K	$8.0K	+$1.5K	36% 761-1361 (2122)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 71¢	$6.0K	$5.7K	-$304.98	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 29.8¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$579.47	34% 735-1404 (2139)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 75.6¢	$881	$874.43	-$6.57	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.6¢	$660.46	$563.18	-$97.27
└ No leg	Noavg 25.2¢	$220.54	$311.25	+$90.7
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 24.5¢	$825.45	$771.02	+$187.38	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 75.6¢	$735.76	$714.54	-$21.22	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.6¢	$576.48	$491.74	-$84.74
└ No leg	Noavg 25.4¢	$159.28	$222.8	+$63.52
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 82¢	$673.21	$536.41	-$136.8	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
poshposh	Yesavg 70.6¢	$335.51	$306.47	-$29.04	46% 781-902 (1683)
SU suntori	Yesavg 88.4¢	$319	$229.16	-$89.84	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 23.1¢	$584.04	$227.3	-$356.74	6% 17-277 (294)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 25¢	$125.3	$142	+$41.92	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 35.5¢	$99.73	$99.85	+$0.12	36% 326-587 (913)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$72.69	$97.81	+$25.13	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$71.4	$53.98	-$17.43	8% 27-316 (343)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$25.41	$53.7	+$28.29	48% 677-745 (1422)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 27.7¢	$33.38	$43.92	+$10.54	39% 37-59 (96)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$27.3	$27.09	-$0.21	32% 291-613 (904)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$31.57	$25.42	-$6.15	56% 307-245 (552)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 75.3¢	$20.59	$17.63	-$2.96	26% 250-703 (953)
SM smithagent<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$18.75	$16.13	-$2.63	43% 507-662 (1169)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$11.91	$14.99	+$3.08	35% 749-1385 (2134)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$10.77	$10.92	+$0.15	53% 631-566 (1197)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$5.5	$4.73	-$0.77	46% 741-864 (1605)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$9.35	$3.83	-$5.53	43% 808-1065 (1873)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$16,293.37

Value

$15.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$6,518.62

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$5,968.65

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$304.98

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$2,563.14

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$579.47

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$881

Value

$874.43

PnL

-$6.57

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Yes$660.4675.6¢-$97.27

No$220.5425.2¢+$90.7

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$825.45

Value

$771.02

PnL

+$187.38

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$735.76

Value

$714.54

PnL

-$21.22

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Yes$576.4875.6¢-$84.74

No$159.2825.4¢+$63.52

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$673.21

Value

$536.41

PnL

-$136.8

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$335.51

Value

$306.47

PnL

-$29.04

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$319

Value

$229.16

PnL

-$89.84

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$584.04

Value

$227.3

PnL

-$356.74

Record

17-277 (294)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$125.3

Value

$142

PnL

+$41.92

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$99.73

Value

$99.85

PnL

+$0.12

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$72.69

Value

$97.81

PnL

+$25.13

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.4

Value

$53.98

PnL

-$17.43

Record

27-316 (343)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$25.41

Value

$53.7

PnL

+$28.29

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$33.38

Value

$43.92

PnL

+$10.54

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

SlickRick123<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.3

Value

$27.09

PnL

-$0.21

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.57

Value

$25.42

PnL

-$6.15

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.59

Value

$17.63

PnL

-$2.96

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

smithagent<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.75

Value

$16.13

PnL

-$2.63

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$11.91

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$3.08

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$10.77

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.77

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$9.35

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$5.53

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 26 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 59% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 52% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.