Will Kenya win on 2026-11-13?

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 92¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$99.87

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 92.3¢

-4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 22 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,471

Combined PnL-$83.99

Yes9 traders

Total Value$134.58

Total Shares2,159

Combined PnL-$15.87

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.6¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$97.46	48% 677-745 (1422)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$443.53	$588.14	+$144.61	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ No leg	Noavg 92.9¢	$313.01	$310.55	-$2.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.7¢	$130.52	$277.6	+$147.08
SL SlickRick123	Noavg 89¢	$260.88	$274.95	+$14.07	32% 291-613 (904)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 97¢	$252.24	$242.11	-$10.13	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
dips.	Noavg 93¢	$155.31	$156.65	+$1.34	46% 741-864 (1605)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 92.4¢	$153.84	$153.76	-$0.08	35% 749-1385 (2134)
SU suitcase6628	Noavg 93¢	$148.8	$150.08	+$1.28	63% 463-269 (732)
fxwd12345	Noavg 92¢	$117.41	$119.71	+$2.3	76% 32-10 (42)
poshposh	Noavg 90.4¢	$99.98	$104.64	+$4.66	46% 781-902 (1683)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$64	$56.92	-$7.08	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$38.19	$38.25	+$0.06	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 93¢	$31.62	$31.62	+$0	56% 307-245 (552)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$31.21	$31.22	+$0.02	34% 735-1404 (2139)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$31.22	$27.18	-$4.04	26% 250-703 (953)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 93¢	$21.59	$21.59	+$0	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 94¢	$18.8	$18.76	-$0.04	8% 27-316 (343)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$19.66	$16.05	-$3.61	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$14.51	$15	+$0.48	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$11.63	$9.34	-$1.94	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$5.13	$5.3	+$0.17	33% 251-499 (750)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$3.46	$3.55	+$0.09	43% 808-1065 (1873)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.05	$0.93	-$0.12	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.14	$0.31	+$0.17	36% 432-771 (1203)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,015.22

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$97.46

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$443.53

Value

$588.14

PnL

+$144.61

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

No$313.0192.9¢-$2.46

Yes$130.523.7¢+$147.08

SlickRick123

Invested

$260.88

Value

$274.95

PnL

+$14.07

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$252.24

Value

$242.11

PnL

-$10.13

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

dips.

Invested

$155.31

Value

$156.65

PnL

+$1.34

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

LightParadox

Invested

$153.84

Value

$153.76

PnL

-$0.08

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

suitcase6628

Invested

$148.8

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$1.28

Record

63%

463-269 (732)

fxwd12345

Invested

$117.41

Value

$119.71

PnL

+$2.3

Record

76%

32-10 (42)

poshposh

Invested

$99.98

Value

$104.64

PnL

+$4.66

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$56.92

PnL

-$7.08

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$38.19

Value

$38.25

PnL

+$0.06

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.62

Value

$31.62

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$31.21

Value

$31.22

PnL

+$0.02

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.22

Value

$27.18

PnL

-$4.04

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$21.59

Value

$21.59

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

$18.76

PnL

-$0.04

Record

27-316 (343)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.66

Value

$16.05

PnL

-$3.61

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.51

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.48

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.63

Value

$9.34

PnL

-$1.94

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.17

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0.09

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.17

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 22 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.