Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

South Africa leading at halftime?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $860 held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$860.16

Combined PnL

$295.92

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$656.3

Total Shares552

Combined PnL+$184.44

No4 traders

Total Value$203.86

Total Shares222

Combined PnL+$111.48

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 86.4¢	$496.68	$560.91	+$64.22	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 47.7¢	$71.5	$149.93	+$78.43	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$46.75	$77.35	+$30.6	35% 749-1385 (2134)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 11.1¢	$3.9	$34.98	+$31.08	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$10.89	$18.02	+$7.13	34% 735-1404 (2139)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$8.07	$17.37	+$9.3	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 45¢	$8.91	$1.58	-$7.33	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$18.48	$0.01	-$18.47	45% 593-733 (1326)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 52.2¢	$201.85	$0.01	+$111.07	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$10.12	$0.01	-$10.12	46% 781-902 (1683)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$496.68

Value

$560.91

PnL

+$64.22

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$71.5

Value

$149.93

PnL

+$78.43

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.75

Value

$77.35

PnL

+$30.6

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$31.08

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.89

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$7.13

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$8.07

Value

$17.37

PnL

+$9.3

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$7.33

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.48

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$18.47

Record

45%

593-733 (1326)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$201.85

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$111.07

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$10.12

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.