South Africa vs. Kenya: Both Teams to Score
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 64%
$2.3K
$985.96
43.3¢ → 100¢
+131% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $588.78 | $1.1K | +$537.77 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 44¢ | $398.37 | $904.94 | +$506.57 | 56% 4863-3816 (8679) |
LI LightParadox | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $55.39 | $151.25 | +$95.86 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $23.28 | $62.89 | +$39.61 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $37.8 | $46.2 | +$8.4 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $31.1 | $25.35 | -$5.74 | 46% 781-902 (1683) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $2.65 | -$0.7 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $2.2 | +$0.45 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $0.68 | $0.88 | +$0.2 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
FO fooooolCTR | Noavg 63¢ | $129.18 | $0.1 | -$129.08 | 39% 37-59 (96) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $69.69 | $0.05 | -$67.37 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
Invested
$588.78
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$537.77
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
RN1Invested
$398.37
Value
$904.94
PnL
+$506.57
Record
56%
4863-3816 (8679)
Invested
$55.39
Value
$151.25
PnL
+$95.86
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
Invested
$23.28
Value
$62.89
PnL
+$39.61
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$46.2
PnL
+$8.4
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$31.1
Value
$25.35
PnL
-$5.74
Record
46%
781-902 (1683)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.7
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.45
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$129.18
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$129.08
Record
39%
37-59 (96)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$69.69
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$67.37
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.