Nigeria vs. Tanzania: O/U 5.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 74¢ · $334 held · ended Nov 13

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$334.18

Combined PnL

-$0.97

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 73.5¢

-18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$192.16

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$0.34

Over5 traders

Total Value$17.43

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$0.63

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 88.3¢	$119.27	$124.59	+$5.32	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Under leg	Underavg 88.3¢	$90.06	$87.19	-$2.87
└ Over leg	Overavg 11.3¢	$29.21	$37.4	+$8.19
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 92¢	$105.46	$100.87	-$4.59	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 86¢	$33.85	$37.39	+$3.54	46% 781-902 (1683)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 92¢	$34.5	$33	-$1.5	48% 677-745 (1422)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 85¢	$18.7	$20.9	+$2.2	45% 593-733 (1326)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$10.97	$10.19	-$0.78	34% 735-1404 (2139)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$3	$3.38	+$0.38	20% 47-184 (231)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 15.3¢	$3.04	$3.08	+$0.04	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.45	+$0.15	41% 91-132 (223)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.75	$0.34	-$0.41	46% 219-260 (479)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$119.27

Value

$124.59

PnL

+$5.32

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Under$90.0688.3¢-$2.87

Over$29.2111.3¢+$8.19

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$105.46

Value

$100.87

PnL

-$4.59

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$33.85

Value

$37.39

PnL

+$3.54

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$34.5

Value

$33

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$18.7

Value

$20.9

PnL

+$2.2

Record

45%

593-733 (1326)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.97

Value

$10.19

PnL

-$0.78

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$0.41

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.