Nigeria vs. Tanzania: O/U 4.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$255.82

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 100¢

+117% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,807

Combined PnL+$357.62

Over7 traders

Total Value$84.68

Total Shares677

Combined PnL-$101.8

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 43.4¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$329.54	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 69.7¢	$219.53	$227.44	+$36.4	32% 291-613 (904)
poshposhARB<$100	Underavg 71¢	$121.99	$100.25	-$21.74	47% 786-902 (1688)
└ Under leg	Underavg 71¢	$106.5	$75	-$31.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.7¢	$15.49	$25.25	+$9.76
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 69.8¢	$71.84	$59.2	-$12.64	45% 595-734 (1329)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$15	$50	+$35	41% 91-133 (224)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 50¢	$50	$50	+$0	39% 37-59 (96)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 38¢	$13.68	$18	+$4.32	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$9.61	$15.5	+$5.89	43% 507-662 (1169)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$6.2	$10	+$3.8	63% 464-269 (733)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$4.56	$7.36	+$2.8	46% 741-865 (1606)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.5	$1.56	+$0.07	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$94.5	$0.16	-$94.34	35% 736-1380 (2116)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$55.1	$0.1	-$55.01	34% 736-1405 (2141)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,574.79

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$329.54

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

SlickRick123

Under

Invested

$219.53

Value

$227.44

PnL

+$36.4

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

poshposhARB<$100

Under

Invested

$121.99

Value

$100.25

PnL

-$21.74

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Both legs:

Under$106.571¢-$31.5

Over$15.4930.7¢+$9.76

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$71.84

Value

$59.2

PnL

-$12.64

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15

Value

$50

PnL

+$35

Record

41%

91-133 (224)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$50

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$13.68

Value

$18

PnL

+$4.32

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.61

Value

$15.5

PnL

+$5.89

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.2

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.8

Record

63%

464-269 (733)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.56

Value

$7.36

PnL

+$2.8

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$94.5

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$94.34

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$55.01

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.