Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (71%). 6 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nigeria vs. Tanzania: O/U 3.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 30¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$7.89

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 29.5¢

-54% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,651

Combined PnL-$136.61

Over10 traders

Total Value$624.58

Total Shares1,393

Combined PnL+$128.72

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 64.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$36.14	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.5¢	$689.33	$1.1K	+$366.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.4¢	$970.57	$640.28	-$330.29
RN1CTR	Underavg 64.3¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$145.87	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 32¢	$266.96	$350.38	+$83.42	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 31.8¢	$97.98	$105	+$26.06	53% 1030-921 (1951)
poshposhARB<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$96.41	$77.34	-$19.06	46% 781-902 (1683)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.4¢	$76.39	$47.53	-$28.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$20.02	$29.81	+$9.8
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$42.24	$51.04	+$8.8	45% 593-733 (1326)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 32¢	$33.6	$44.1	+$10.5	56% 307-245 (552)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 50¢	$42.03	$40.71	-$1.32	35% 749-1385 (2134)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 66.4¢	$31.22	$30.55	-$0.67	43% 507-662 (1169)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 43.5¢	$18.18	$24.04	+$5.86	36% 252-442 (694)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 34¢	$9.52	$14.28	+$4.76	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46.7¢	$7	$8.7	+$1.7	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 41¢	$6.15	$6.3	+$0.15	63% 463-269 (732)
dips.<$100	Overavg 66¢	$5.94	$5.85	-$0.09	46% 741-864 (1605)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$5	$5.06	+$0.06	35% 735-1379 (2114)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 50.7¢	$5.65	$3.9	-$1.75	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.32	$3.37	+$0.05	36% 432-771 (1203)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.9	+$0.45	34% 735-1404 (2139)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,659.9

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$36.14

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Over$689.3337.5¢+$366.43

Under$970.5764.4¢-$330.29

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,624.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$145.87

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$266.96

Value

$350.38

PnL

+$83.42

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$97.98

Value

$105

PnL

+$26.06

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

poshposhARB<$100

Under

Invested

$96.41

Value

$77.34

PnL

-$19.06

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

Both legs:

Under$76.3947.4¢-$28.86

Over$20.0247.3¢+$9.8

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.24

Value

$51.04

PnL

+$8.8

Record

45%

593-733 (1326)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$33.6

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$10.5

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$42.03

Value

$40.71

PnL

-$1.32

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$31.22

Value

$30.55

PnL

-$0.67

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$18.18

Value

$24.04

PnL

+$5.86

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$9.52

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$4.76

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$1.7

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.15

Record

63%

463-269 (732)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.65

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$1.75

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.45

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.