Nigeria vs. Tanzania: O/U 2.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Over78¢Under22¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$36.16

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 77.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,394

Combined PnL-$34.97

Under8 traders

Total Value$233.34

Total Shares1,169

Combined PnL-$1.19

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 81.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$50.94	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 16.8¢	$88.19	$107.39	+$19.2	34% 735-1404 (2139)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 17.3¢	$65.21	$80.87	+$15.66	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 57¢	$29.99	$44.16	+$14.17	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
RN1<$100	Overavg 75¢	$15	$16.8	+$1.8	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 32.4¢	$28.23	$13.94	-$14.28	35% 735-1379 (2114)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 30.1¢	$18.2	$9.66	-$8.54	46% 781-902 (1683)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$9.3	$9.07	-$0.22	43% 808-1065 (1873)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 42.7¢	$66.94	$7.59	-$9.86	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 31.3¢	$4.7	$2.4	-$2.3	35% 749-1385 (2134)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 21.7¢	$3.25	$2.4	-$0.85	36% 326-587 (913)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,169.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$50.94

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$88.19

Value

$107.39

PnL

+$19.2

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.21

Value

$80.87

PnL

+$15.66

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$29.99

Value

$44.16

PnL

+$14.17

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$15

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.23

Value

$13.94

PnL

-$14.28

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.2

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$8.54

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$0.22

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.94

Value

$7.59

PnL

-$9.86

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$2.3

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.85

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.