Will Tanzania win on 2026-11-13?

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 95¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 13

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$44.4

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 94.7¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,825

Combined PnL+$34.85

Yes6 traders

Total Value$96.12

Total Shares1,798

Combined PnL+$9.55

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fxwd12345	Noavg 95.7¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$48.71	76% 32-10 (42)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 93.5¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$87.36	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 95.4¢	$427.28	$423.91	-$3.37	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI Limousin	Noavg 95.7¢	$369.04	$365.18	-$3.86	35% 735-1379 (2114)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 94.7¢	$165.47	$166.12	+$0.65	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
RN1	Noavg 93.3¢	$116.69	$117.53	+$0.84	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
SE sentrio	Noavg 93.7¢	$105.76	$106.59	+$0.83	43% 808-1065 (1873)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$78	$77.01	-$0.99	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$62.52	$68.32	+$5.81	48% 677-745 (1422)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.2¢	$40.46	$40.23	-$0.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.2¢	$22.06	$28.09	+$6.04
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 95¢	$64.6	$64.46	-$0.14	56% 307-245 (552)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$36.85	$38.26	+$1.41	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$34.84	$35.89	+$1.05	33% 251-499 (750)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$21.37	$28.56	+$7.18	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$31.56	$28.11	-$3.45	46% 741-864 (1605)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$19.43	$24.32	+$4.89	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$22.49	$22.32	-$0.17	35% 749-1385 (2134)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$13.42	$13.54	+$0.12	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$7.18	$7.13	-$0.05	54% 467-398 (865)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.65	$1.33	+$0.69	46% 781-902 (1683)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.14	$0.27	+$0.13	43% 507-662 (1169)

fxwd12345

Invested

$4,465.32

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$48.71

Record

76%

32-10 (42)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,653.96

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$87.36

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

MadridTime

Invested

$427.28

Value

$423.91

PnL

-$3.37

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

Limousin

Invested

$369.04

Value

$365.18

PnL

-$3.86

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$165.47

Value

$166.12

PnL

+$0.65

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

RN1

Invested

$116.69

Value

$117.53

PnL

+$0.84

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

sentrio

Invested

$105.76

Value

$106.59

PnL

+$0.83

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$78

Value

$77.01

PnL

-$0.99

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$62.52

Value

$68.32

PnL

+$5.81

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Both legs:

No$40.4695.2¢-$0.23

Yes$22.064.2¢+$6.04

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$64.6

Value

$64.46

PnL

-$0.14

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$36.85

Value

$38.26

PnL

+$1.41

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$34.84

Value

$35.89

PnL

+$1.05

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.37

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$7.18

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.56

Value

$28.11

PnL

-$3.45

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.43

Value

$24.32

PnL

+$4.89

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$22.49

Value

$22.32

PnL

-$0.17

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.42

Value

$13.54

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$7.18

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

467-398 (865)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.69

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.13

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.