Will Niger win on 2026-11-13?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$2.2K
$14.7
97.4¢ → 98.1¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.6¢ | $769.34 | $773.27 | +$3.93 | 36% 326-587 (913) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 97.8¢ | $524.09 | $525.7 | +$1.61 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97.5¢ | $445.56 | $448.32 | +$2.76 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
 poshposh | Noavg 95.9¢ | $219.32 | $223.66 | +$4.35 | 46% 781-902 (1683) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 96.6¢ | $105.3 | $106.6 | +$1.3 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $79.8 | $80.04 | +$0.24 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $28.91 | $29.34 | +$0.43 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.42 | $0.5 | +$0.07 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
Invested
$769.34
Value
$773.27
PnL
+$3.93
Record
36%
326-587 (913)
Invested
$524.09
Value
$525.7
PnL
+$1.61
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
Invested
$445.56
Value
$448.32
PnL
+$2.76
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
poshposhInvested
$219.32
Value
$223.66
PnL
+$4.35
Record
46%
781-902 (1683)
Invested
$105.3
Value
$106.6
PnL
+$1.3
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$79.8
Value
$80.04
PnL
+$0.24
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$28.91
Value
$29.34
PnL
+$0.43
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.