Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Morocco win on 2026-11-13?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 9.5¢ · $266 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$266.11
-$9.6
Research grade
AvoidNo at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 89.5¢ | $141.56 | $146.91 | +$5.35 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 89.5¢ | $89.49 | $90.49 | +$1 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 8.8¢ | $52.08 | $56.43 | +$4.35 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $38.37 | $34.11 | -$4.26 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $31.75 | $31.75 | -$0 | 56% 309-246 (555) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $17.65 | $15.69 | -$1.96 | 30% 77-180 (257) |
WA waierma<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $10 | $10 | -$0 | 10% 11-100 (111) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $9.52 | $9.47 | -$0.05 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $11.1 | $8.88 | -$2.22 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 8.9¢ | $9.31 | $8.33 | -$0.98 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $1.09 | $0.97 | -$0.12 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
Invested
$141.56
Value
$146.91
PnL
+$5.35
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.37
Value
$34.11
PnL
-$4.26
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$31.75
Value
$31.75
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
309-246 (555)
Invested
$17.65
Value
$15.69
PnL
-$1.96
Record
30%
77-180 (257)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
-$0
Record
10%
11-100 (111)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.47
PnL
-$0.05
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$11.1
Value
$8.88
PnL
-$2.22
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$8.33
PnL
-$0.98
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$0.12
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.