Will Rwanda win on 2026-11-13?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$16.15
92.9¢ → 93.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 92.8¢ | $845.08 | $851.02 | +$5.93 | 35% 735-1379 (2114) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 93.5¢ | $708.35 | $708.48 | +$0.13 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 93¢ | $448.19 | $453 | +$4.82 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 93¢ | $447.96 | $452.78 | +$4.82 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 91.8¢ | $368.74 | $377.78 | +$9.04 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $185.81 | $187.28 | +$1.47 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $101.39 | $102.41 | +$1.02 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 93¢ | $84.41 | $84.87 | +$0.45 | |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $38.08 | $38.28 | +$0.2 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $31.85 | $32.9 | +$1.05 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $35.65 | $26.73 | -$8.91 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $3.69 | $2.77 | -$0.92 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
Invested
$845.08
Value
$851.02
PnL
+$5.93
Record
35%
735-1379 (2114)
Invested
$708.35
Value
$708.48
PnL
+$0.13
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
Invested
$448.19
Value
$453
PnL
+$4.82
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$447.96
Value
$452.78
PnL
+$4.82
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$368.74
Value
$377.78
PnL
+$9.04
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$185.81
Value
$187.28
PnL
+$1.47
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.08
Value
$38.28
PnL
+$0.2
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
Invested
$31.85
Value
$32.9
PnL
+$1.05
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$35.65
Value
$26.73
PnL
-$8.91
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$3.69
Value
$2.77
PnL
-$0.92
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.