Will Mali win on 2026-11-13?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 76¢ · $505 held · ends Nov 13

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$505.42

Combined PnL

$6.34

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 75.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$378.37

Total Shares501

Combined PnL+$12.39

No5 traders

Total Value$127.04

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$6.06

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Yesavg 73¢	$273.71	$283.08	+$9.37	35% 736-1380 (2116)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$82.27	$85.09	+$2.82	36% 763-1361 (2124)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 26.9¢	$77.46	$71.86	-$5.6	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$26.42	$26.95	+$0.54	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 26.9¢	$18.6	$17.27	-$1.33	43% 809-1065 (1874)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$10	$10.2	+$0.2	10% 11-100 (111)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$9.22	$9.22	+$0	56% 309-246 (555)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$6.27	$1.74	+$0.33	53% 1030-921 (1951)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$273.71

Value

$283.08

PnL

+$9.37

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.27

Value

$85.09

PnL

+$2.82

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$77.46

Value

$71.86

PnL

-$5.6

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$26.42

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$0.54

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$17.27

PnL

-$1.33

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$9.22

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.