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OverOver
dips.<$100OverOverUnderUnderUnderUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Madagascar vs. Guinea-Bissau: Madagascar O/U 0.5
Resolved Over. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Under 57%
Total Value
$270.78
Combined PnL
-$6.54
Smart Money Signal
Under
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Over4 traders
Total Value$270.78
Total Shares271
Combined PnL+$93.65
Under4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares289
Combined PnL-$100.19
Over — 50%Under — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Overavg 65.3¢ | $97.98 | $149.97 | +$51.99 | 53% 6251-5536 (11787) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Overavg 65.1¢ | $45.6 | $70 | +$24.4 | 43% 374-496 (870) |
dips.<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $64 | $50 | +$17 | 45% 563-680 (1243) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $0.55 | $0.81 | +$0.26 | 54% 94-79 (173) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $22.88 | — | -$22.88 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $54 | — | -$54 | 35% 221-416 (637) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $6.66 | — | -$6.66 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 28.6¢ | $16.65 | — | -$16.65 | 32% 565-1192 (1757) |
CI
cigarettesInvested
$97.98
Value
$149.97
PnL
+$51.99
Record
53%
6251-5536 (11787)
SM
smithagent<$100Invested
$45.6
Value
$70
PnL
+$24.4
Record
43%
374-496 (870)
dips.<$100Invested
$64
Value
$50
PnL
+$17
Record
45%
563-680 (1243)
0X
0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.81
PnL
+$0.26
Record
54%
94-79 (173)
FL
FlaznorpCTR<$100Invested
$22.88
Value
—
PnL
-$22.88
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
LU
LuckyLooCTR<$100Invested
$54
Value
—
PnL
-$54
Record
35%
221-416 (637)
SN
SnakeBallCTR<$100Invested
$6.66
Value
—
PnL
-$6.66
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
VE
VenusianCTR<$100Invested
$16.65
Value
—
PnL
-$16.65
Record
32%
565-1192 (1757)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc1f6f0d8...4b12f6
Slug
afcq-mad-gb-2026-11-12-team-total-home-0pt5