Will Madagascar win on 2026-11-12?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 76¢ · $304 held · ended Nov 12

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$303.87

Combined PnL

$4.79

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 76¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$246.22

Total Shares305

Combined PnL+$7.75

Yes7 traders

Total Value$57.66

Total Shares221

Combined PnL-$2.96

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 71¢	$181.78	$188.5	+$6.72	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 71¢	$45.79	$46.82	+$1.03	33% 534-1108 (1642)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$22.57	$20.96	-$1.61	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$10.67	$11.08	+$0.41	46% 440-515 (955)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$10	$9.63	-$0.37	0% 0-94 (94)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$9.2	$8.39	-$0.81	33% 553-1132 (1685)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$7.35	+$0.05	52% 761-712 (1473)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$4.18	$3.89	-$0.29	33% 558-1109 (1667)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.55	-$0.05	22% 176-635 (811)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.8	$2.51	-$0.29	32% 538-1125 (1663)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.2	+$0	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

Flaznorp

Invested

$181.78

Value

$188.5

PnL

+$6.72

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$45.79

Value

$46.82

PnL

+$1.03

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.57

Value

$20.96

PnL

-$1.61

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.67

Value

$11.08

PnL

+$0.41

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$0.37

Record

0-94 (94)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.39

PnL

-$0.81

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.29

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

22%

176-635 (811)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$0.29

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.