Will Guinea-Bissau win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 66¢ · $716 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$715.91
$16.44
57.3¢ → 65.5¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 56¢ | $327.69 | $330.61 | +$2.93 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 59.9¢ | $198.58 | $216.19 | +$17.6 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $96.19 | $91.38 | -$4.81 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56¢ | $113.5 | $43.54 | +$1.54 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $24.49 | $23.93 | -$0.57 | 22% 176-635 (811) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $6.26 | $5.85 | -$0.42 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $2.26 | $2.32 | +$0.06 | 47% 522-581 (1103) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.1 | +$0.1 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
Invested
$327.69
Value
$330.61
PnL
+$2.93
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$198.58
Value
$216.19
PnL
+$17.6
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$96.19
Value
$91.38
PnL
-$4.81
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
VeryLucky888Invested
$113.5
Value
$43.54
PnL
+$1.54
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$24.49
Value
$23.93
PnL
-$0.57
Record
22%
176-635 (811)
Invested
$6.26
Value
$5.85
PnL
-$0.42
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
poshposh<$100Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.06
Record
47%
522-581 (1103)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.